Jimmy Wales on the Future of Bitcoin
Jimmy Wales, one of the co-founders of Wikipedia, has shared a rather bleak outlook for the future of Bitcoin. While he does not believe that the cryptocurrency will completely collapse, he predicts that by 2050, its value could drop to below $10,000. Wales believes that Bitcoin is structurally sound enough to persist, but its minimal practical use will push it into a niche space, primarily for hobbyists rather than for mainstream financial transactions.
Analysis and Predictions
In his analysis, Wales stated,
“People who think that Bitcoin is going to zero are likely mistaken,”
affirming that the cryptocurrency’s design gives it staying power, provided there are no unforeseen catastrophic issues like a breakdown in cryptographic security or a significant security breach, such as a 51% attack. However, he pointed out that even though Bitcoin may remain operational, it will ultimately be deemed a “complete failure” in terms of being a viable currency or a reliable store of value, unable to emerge as the ‘dominant money of the future.’
Price Forecast and Skepticism
He voiced a rather cautious price forecast, suggesting that the value of Bitcoin could settle at under $10,000 in today’s dollars by mid-century, perhaps even lower. Additionally, Wales pushed back against the popular narrative that Bitcoin could serve as a crucial escape option for individuals living under authoritarian governments. In response to claims that increased digital rights restrictions would lead to greater Bitcoin adoption, he expressed skepticism, remarking,
“It’s hard to use, volatile, not accepted as currency anywhere.”
Traditional Investments vs. Bitcoin
He stated further that while Bitcoin may appeal to enthusiasts and hobbyists, more traditional forms of value storage like gold, silver, real estate, and fine art are likely to retain their status as secure investments. Wales was also critical of the notion that the growth of institutional financial products, such as ETFs or futures contracts, would continually support or inflate Bitcoin’s price. He described institutions within traditional finance as “famously ruthless and not ideological,” implying that if interest in Bitcoin declines, these financial products would likely see their prices drop as well.
