Disappearance of Abacus Market
The notorious darknet marketplace, Abacus Market, which facilitated transactions using Bitcoin, has seemingly vanished from the digital landscape, raising suspicions of an exit scam. According to a recent report by TRM Labs, both its main website and the corresponding clearnet mirror are no longer accessible, prompting concerns about the probable misappropriation of users’ assets by the marketplace operators.
Speculations and User Concerns
TRM Labs speculated that the sudden disappearance could stem from increasing scrutiny by law enforcement agencies. The marketplace witnessed an unprecedented surge in activity following the shutdown of Archetyp Market, another significant player in the dark web scene, in mid-June. Subsequently, user reports of difficulties in withdrawing funds began to surface towards the end of June.
In response, the market’s administrator, under the alias “Vito”, attempted to reassure users, attributing the issues to an overwhelming number of new participants and a targeted denial-of-service attack.
Such claims, however, were in line with familiar exit scam behaviors previously exhibited by other darknet operations.
Impact on User Activity
This wave of reassurance proved ineffective, as many users opted to withdraw from the platform, resulting in a drastic decrease in daily deposit amounts—from an average of $230,000 throughout most of June to merely $13,000 during the span from June 28 to July 10. Abacus Market was reputed for its extensive selection of illegal drugs, ranging from stimulants and psychedelics to unlicensed pharmaceuticals, all while supporting multiple cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin and Monero.
Market Dynamics and Financials
The marketplace’s unpredicted success can be traced back to the recent downfall of Archetyp, which was forced offline by Europol on June 16. With users flocking to Abacus in search of alternative options, the marketplace reported record sales of $6.3 million for June. A similar influx occurred following the voluntary closure of ASAP Market in July 2023, with Abacus’s volume witnessing a notable uptick of 20% in comparison to the previous month.
TRM Labs pointed out that the closure of large dark net markets often redirects users to the next dominant platform, and under such circumstances, Abacus managed to capture over 70% of the Western dark market ecosystem supporting Bitcoin transactions. With nearly $100 million generated in Bitcoin sales across its four-year existence, analysts estimate that the actual sales figure—factoring in privacy coins like Monero—could reach between $300 million to $400 million.
Potential Law Enforcement Actions
TRM Labs offers a perspective that the administrators of Abacus likely evaluated their risk between ongoing operations and the allure of maintaining freedom and financial assets, particularly following the legal action against Archetyp and the unexpected influx of new users that raised Abacus’s visibility. Past incidents have shown that other marketplace administrators have exited successfully, whether through voluntary departures like those at ASAP Market and Agora Market, or through exit scams similar to the one executed by Evolution Market.
There remains a possibility that law enforcement may have taken covert control of Abacus, gathering intelligence and evidence on those associated with the operation prior to making their move public. However, insights from the Dread forum administrator, who was closely connected with Abacus’s team, suggest skepticism towards the notion of an official seizure, noting that in some prior cases, formal announcements followed only months after the closure of a darknet market.
